Crows vs Tigers
Thursday night football is back tonight with Richmond travelling to take on Adelaide. It’s been five years since the Tigers have won at Adelaide and I doubt that losing streak will end tonight. Richmond’s injuries continue to mount and while the team has battled well this year, things will just get harder as the season continues.
It’s a tough decision for me tonight. I’ve been a huge Reily O’Brien fan this season and it’s amazing to see him thrive in the number one ruck spot. I have no doubt that ROB will outscore Ivan Soldo tonight. My only concern is that ROB doesn’t beat Soldo score by enough to justify the additional $3,000 spend. If we use ceilings to make this call, then ROB clearly gets the gig with his 120+ potential. If we use floors to make this call, then Soldo comes back into calculations. That said, you don’t win GPPs by making decisions based on floors!
You could also go for the ultimate contrarian play of selecting Noah Balta. As much as I like this kid, I can’t really see the benefit of playing him today. Adelaide’s defense has been pretty solid all year, particularly their key defenders. Balta also failed to get any hitouts last week as well.
As I’ve mentioned over the past few weeks, playing defenders against Richmond is no longer a thing. However, there are more Adelaide defenders I like today than Richmond ones, so I may just have to go against the stats on this one.
We’ve got a couple of bargain key defenders to consider first up. I’m tipping that one of Adelaide’s key defenders will have a very good night - I just don’t know which one. I’d suggest that Daniel Talia will get first crack at Tom Lynch, leaving Kyle Hartigan to take Balta and Alex Keith to play as the interceptor. These are just mere predictions but if you can nail the interceptor role, then you could be on your way to decent cash.
Patrick Naish’s debut was outstanding from both a fantasy and real footy perspective. Naish could easily become a 200-game player for the club and it will be interesting to see what position he settles in. I’m a little cautious of going back to Naish tonight as road games aren’t great spots for rookies (just look what happened to Isaac Cumming last week). A $3,000 price hike doesn’t help either, but if you want to stack your midfield, then you’re going to have to pay down in multiple spots.
Connor Menadue and Nathan Broad have pretty lower ceilings with Menadue slightly ahead if you’re looking to pay down in your backline.
If you don’t think that any defender will score well tonight, then you could just take a hit with both your defenders and use the cash in the forward line or midfield. Paul Seedsman’s scoring has understandably taken a huge hit with Rory Laird and a fit Brodie Smith playing alongside him now. Seedsman’s price has dropped below $9K and I’m considering him as a pay down option. However, for a little bit more you get Sydney Stack or Jake Kelly who all have slightly higher ceilings than Seedsman at the moment.
Wayne Milera is quickly become one of my favourite players to watch. Milera came through for his first 100+ score of the season but at $12,440, playing Milera will impact what you’ll be able to do in your midfield. Milera and Rory Laird might not be needed much and their ceilings may be reduced tonight.
It’s just so hard for me to imagine any other game script than a complete mauling by the Crows. Everything points to this result - Richmond’s depleted lineup, the Crows strong recent form, the ever-present memory of the 2017 Grand Final. For this reason, I just have to go for Adelaide stacks in my forward line. However, as most people will be taking the same approach, you will need to find some diversification at some point.
A Josh Jenkins/Taylor Walker combination is bound to be popular. Walker’s form hasn’t been amazing but his price is great for his ceiling. Jenkins has been solid since his return from the SANFL and again, the matchup is amazing.
If you’re looking for variation, then Jordan Galluci could be a good pick. Galluci hasn’t been given an opportunity to shine in the midfield yet but he is being played higher up the ground than pressure forward Lachlan Murphy.
Jack Higgins and Josh Caddy will be needed in the midfield today. Playing these Richmond value guys in the hope that they have more midfield time hasn’t really paid off this year (expect when Jack Ross was too cheap to ignore). If I was going to pick one of them to score well then it would be Caddy. There’s no point leaving Caddy in the forward line if the ball won’t get to him. Caddy is also available as a midfielder on Draftstars.
Jack Graham will be a popular value selection with his increased midfield role tonight. Graham’s tackle floor is a benefit but he just never seems to get much of the ball. Graham averages only 14.3 disposals per game over his career (even this low average is inflated somewhat by his sensational debut season).
A Rory Atkins ceiling game could put you right into contention and I’m more than happy to take a chance on the ‘other other’ Rory today. In fact, I might make a triple Rory stack just for shits and giggles. Cam Ellis-Yolmen is the other point of difference midfield play that I’m considering tonight as well. CEY has the ability to go for HAM at any stage and on a night where people try to jam Crouching Brothers, Hidden Sloane into their midfielders, I like taking a slightly different approach in GPPs.
Richmond trio Dustin Martin, Dion Prestia and Brandon Ellis will lead Richmond’s midfield tonight and I suspect they’ll all be popular selections because of their increased roles. I don’t disagree with this line of thinking, but I just think that Adelaide’s midfielders all have much higher ceilings. Finally, Rory Sloane took three quarters to shake off De Boer’s tag last week and still scored a respectable 81. Richmond rarely tag these days and Sloane will be free to do as he pleases.