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The Value Hunter: Round 9 - Mother's Day Special

Posted {{post.formattedDate}} by Roody

Sunday Slate

Alright, welcome to the Mother’s Day edition of the Value Hunter! Some shrewd scheduling by the AFL means the Mrs Scott can have lunch with her sons before North take on Geelong. We then head to the MCG where the Hawks host the Giants. I’m excited for this game but not for the reasons you’re thinking. My son is playing the Auskick game at quarter-time. He’s inside midfielder who loves a goal assist. Draftstars have priced him well at $0 and I think it’s safe to expect 1,000x value from the young superstar. The last game is the fantasy relevant from a fantasy point of value is the Dockers hosting Richmond.

Rucks

Yikes! This is ugly. When Rhys Stanley is one of the most viable ruck options, you know we’re in trouble. That’s probably a little harsh on Stanley who is actually in great fantasy form. Stanley should be able to outrun an aging Todd Goldstein in a game that Geelong should win.

Dawson Simpson is solo rucking at $9K and so is Rory Lobb at $11K, but neither of these guys really inspire me. These ruck stocks are so bad that I’m even considering Esava Ratugolea at $6K.

My takes: It’s really “do I have to stakes” today. Simpson, Stanley.

Defenders

Don’t be fooled by last week’s game, North Melbourne aren’t a good team this year and they’ll get absolutely whalloped by Geelong today. Top priced defender Mitch Duncan is very much in play, as is Cam Guthrie, who is arguably in career-best form, both in fantasy and in real life.

Luke Ryan will have the job of clearing Richmond chaos balls all-day long. There’s no direct matchup for Ryan and I love playing him on days like this. Reece Conca and Adam Cerra have both been playing across half-back recently and should also come into your calculations today.

You can justify going back to Zac Wilson for as long as Lachie Whitfield remains on the sidelines. Nick Haynes doesn’t play the same role but that hasn’t stopped him for getting a Whitfield bump at all. Hawthorn’s forward line isn’t exactly threatening, so Haynes could easily have another big day today.

Sydney Stack returning home to prove the doubters wrong narrative? Yes, please! I’m not usually a narrative man but I love this spot and the narrative for Stack - a kid once exiled from the Western Australian junior footy scene.

I’ve looked at the cheaper options a few times now and I just can’t find anyone I like much at all. I hope you don’t take this as a cop out, but I’m moving on and I’ll try to find value somewhere else.

Forwards

If we start off with the bottom rung, then Dylan Moore isn’t the worst salary saver. Moore has had two games with 5 tackles now and at $6.5K, you’re not risking too much to get some value into your side. Zac Langdon has provided some decent value in the past and he’ll be low owned on his season debut. Cam Zurhaar will be on everybody’s radar now after his 5 goal effort against the Blues. Zurhaar was hovering around value even before last week’s explosion but he’ll find today’s matchup against Geelong just that ‘little’ bit harder.

Sam Reid is listed as forward but is playing exclusively as a defender these days. If you’re keen on Williams and Haynes, then Reid should be on your list as well. Richmond’s midfield replacements are always an option on these slates. Jack Higgins, Josh Caddy and Liam Baker are all priced within a few hundred dollars of each other. Remarkably, it’s Liam Baker who’s in the best fantasy form at the moment. Baker is bringing relentless forward pressure to the Richmond forward line, highlight by his impressive tackle counts.

Brandon Parfitt could go well on the fast track at Etihad and James Worpel is a reliable floor play at $11K. Matt Taberner has cooled ever since I started talking him up but he get’s a favourable matchup against a Richmond defence with is still undermanned and undersized. The same goes for Jesse Hogan.

Jack Ziebell’s return to the midfield has caught a lot of people in the fantasy world napping. If Ziebell stays in the guts that he’s a solid option today. I’m not sure we can bank a big hundred from Ziebell and at $12K, we’d be hoping for more than just reaching 100 and getting out next ball.

The Jeremy Cameron show rolls on. Cameron has now kicked 3+ goals in every game this season and only has 15 games to go until he breaks Jason Dunstall’s record for 21 games! Hawthorn are no longer the scary proposition they once were, especially defensively. The Giants don’t play often at the MCG, but you’d imagine that Cameron will enjoy being able to lead into space.

Next we have a group of midfielder masquerading as forwards. Without a heap of value around today, it’s tough to fit these guys in but the respective ceilings of Kelly and Ablett are as high as ever, especially if Danger is a late out.

Midfielders

Tarryn Thomas and Tom Atkins are both worth considering and could easily reel off value games. Thomas has performed well in a half-forward/wing role and he is an excellent user of the footy. Atkins has an excellent tackle floor but he’s not really offering much more than that at the moment.

Tom Scully has a revenge game narrative, although his departure from GWS was largely uneventful. And if you played Jack Ross last week, there’s no reason why you shouldn’t play him again.

Jackson Hatley seems to negatively impact Jacob Hopper’s scoring, so with the rookie dropped this week, Hopper should score well again this week.

Again, that’s about it for the cheaper options today. There is a group of $13-14K players who could all easily reach 120+. My favourite picks in this group Jaeger O’Meara, Josh Kelly and Tim Taranto. Fitting these guys in is tricky however, on a slate that doesn’t offer much value.

Final thoughts…

I really like this slate. A lack of cheap value means that you really need to think carefully when you’re building your lineup. I’ll be looking for an even spread of players, anchored by one or two midfield guns.