Tonight's Thursday Night Football offers a statistical match-up made in DFS heaven!
The 7-2 Storm host the 5-4 Tigers to kick off round 10, with the Storm aiming to lock-up a top 4 spot on the ladder and the Tigers aiming for their 3rd win on the trot.
Sans AFL Thursday night NRL DFS prize pools seem to have found their level with a repeat of last weeks $8k (156 ITM, $876 1st) GPP on Draftstars (DS) and $5k (89 ITM, $650 1st) in guaranteed prize money up for grab on Moneyball (MB).
Kick start your DFS research and claim your share of the prize money on offer by checking out my preview of tonight's game.
STORM v TIGERS
AAMI Park - 7:50pm
The Storm responded to coach Bellamy's threats with a 64-10 flogging of the Eels last round, securing 3rd place on the ladder - while the Tigers embarrassed the Panthers by 26 points and sit just 2 wins behind the Storm in 6th on the ladder.
From 10,000 match simulations, Stats Insider projections are very similar to the sportsbooks, with the $1.30 Storm expected to defeat the $4.20 Tigers by 12 points.
The Storm are projected to score 4 tries - the Tigers 2 tries.
If you’re having a punt this round check out Stats Insider’s VALUE SUMMARY page. Stats Insider is now completely FREE!
Young gun Ryan Papenhuyzen is named to make his debut as a starter for injured Storm fullback Jahrome Hughes, and makes a tempting value play on MB for only $3,900. Centre Marion Seve gets a start for injured Curtis Scott, and is bargain priced on both sites.
Josh Aloiai returns the to Tigers bench, offering a solid 4x on DS, in an otherwise unchanged team.
Let’s take a look at Stats Insider's positional scoring data, showing where tries have been scored & conceded so far this season.
It's obvious from the table above that both teams tonight have excellent statistical left side match-ups.
The Storm have scored nearly half their tries this season on their left side - Cameron Munster (5 tries this season), Kenny Bromwich (2), Will Chambers (2) & Josh Addo-Carr (7) tonight - have a tasty match-up against the leakier of the Tigers sides.
Statistically the Tigers left side - Luke Brooks (8 try assists this season), Chris McQueen, Robert Jennings (4 tries) & Corey Thompson (4) tonight - have an even better match-up against a Storm right side defense that has been shockingly poor (up until last week that is).
CRUNCHER LINEUP #1
Below is Fantasy Insider Lineup Cruncher #1 lineup for DS & MB – using Premium subscriber projections with standard cruncher settings – which tends to produce solid cash game lineups, and highlight good core players for GPP’s.
The FI Cruncher projects Cameron Smith (proj 60.3) will slightly outscore fellow HK stud Robbie Farah (55.2) and has Cameron Munster (55.9), Alex Twal (54.7) & Ryan Matterson(52) topping fpt scores in their positions.
MB projections have Cameron Munster (proj 38.7), Cameron Smith (38), Ryan Matterson (35.4) & Josh Addo-Carr (35.3) as the highest scorers in their respective positions.
Looking at top 10 lineup builds, the cruncher loves the value Matthew Eisenhuth (49.8) on DS and Ryan Matterson (35.4) & Ryan Papenhuzen (26.8) on MB offer.
Good luck with your lineups and remember to always check final team lists posted 60 mins before kickoff.
If you’re new to NRL DFS have a quick read of my NRL DFS Strategy Basics article, and also check out my NRL DFS Strategy: Draftstars vs Moneyball post if you play on both sites. Oh, and don’t forget to try the FREE version of the Fantasy Insider Lineup Cruncher.