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k1w1nOz's R21 Cowboys v Broncos NRL DFS Preview

Posted {{post.formattedDate}} by k1w1nOz

Forget finals football. Tonight's game is all about pride and bragging rights when the Cowboys host the Broncos in what has become one of the best local derby games on the calendar.

After embarrassing losses last week, both sides are out restore the faith of their fans - and claim the title of #1 Qld NRL team (for what it's worth...)

Sweet! Draftstars (DS) have bumped their Thurs Night Football GPP back to $10k (1st pays $970) and Moneyball (MB) have again posted a $5k GPP (1st pays $650) for tonight's game.

Kick start your DFS research and claim your share of the big money up for grabs by checking out all of the key info for tonight's game.

COWBOYS v BRONCOS 

1300SMILES Stadium - Thurs 7:50pm 

This local derby has produced a succession of classic golden point battles over recent years. Tonight's game has the makings of another exciting close match.

The Cowboys play their third consecutive Thursday Night Football game, but their first playing at home. The revenge narrative is alive and well tonight for the Cows after losing 29-10 in R2 at Suncorp Stadium - and taking offence to a Broncos unnecessary late field goal.

From 10,000 simulations Stats Insider projects this game will go to golden point. The bookies have the $1.80 Broncos 1.5pt favourites over the $2.00 Cowboys.

With both teams expected to score 3 tries each, a balanced lineup seems optimal.

Remember to check out the Stats Insider Value Summary page if you're having a punt this weekend.

INS/OUTS

Gideon Gela-Mosby has been recalled to the Cowboys left wing replacing rookie winger Murray Taulagi who returned 0T/0TA/1LB in his 3 games.

Broncos 2RF Alex Glenn is a late out. Tevita Pangai jnr takes Glenn's backrow spot with Joe Ofahengaue promoted to start at lock & Thomas Flegler dropping back to the bench. Gehamat Shibasaki has been named at centre for the under-performing Xavier Coates,

MATCH-UPS

Stats Insider launched a cool new NRL Try Location Analysis page this week - showing tries scored & conceded by location for every team - so you can build match-up tables for every game.

Here's where tonight's teams have scored & conceded tries so far this season:

The Cowboys left side attack has been terrible this season, and tonight's random combo of Coen Hess (1T) & Gideon Gela-Mosby (0T) seem unlikely to capitalise on the defensively poor Broncos right side.

Instead we can expect the Cowboys to continue their focus on their right side via Tom Opacic (7T) & Kyle Feldt (7T). Feldt was the Cowboys sole try scorer last round.

Both Broncos wings appear to have tasty match-ups tonight. It's likely their right side of Kotoni Staggs (7T) & Jermayne Issako (2T) will see the majority of attacking play, though left winger and Broncos leading try scorer Corey Oates (13T) has a way of just finding the ball and is always worthy of consideration.

CRUNCHER LINEUP #1

Below are Fantasy Insider Lineup Cruncher #1 lineups for DS & MB – using Premium subscriber projections with standard cruncher settings – which tends to produce solid cash game lineups, and highlight core players for GPP’s.

Draftstars
Moneyball

The range of good value options tonight has spread player exposure in the top 10 projected optimal DS lineups. Kotoni Staggs is the only player to feature in 100% of those lineups, Corey Oates is in 90%, David Fifita & Jake Granville have 80% exposure.

Unsurprisingly the under-priced Shane Wright & Scott Drinkwater both feature in the top 10 projected MB lineups.

Remember: Premium Subscribers can access the full suite of Fantasy Insider toolsincluding CSV export and import to Draftstars and Moneyball. GO PREMIUM NOW.

BEST VALUE

If you think the Broncos will win and win well tonight, Darris Boyd is a bargain priced must-play on DS, but a little harder to afford on MB.

Kyle Feldt, Shane Wright & Scott Drinkwater are all under-priced on DS and should return the target 4x salary we're looking for.

In the $10k-$11k range David Fifita, Joe Ofhengaue, TPJ & Jake Granville should also easily return 4x on DS.

On MB Jake Turpin is a crazy cheap $4,500 with a high upside. Jake Clifford is also bargain priced, but has seen his fpt scoring drop with Michael Morgan back in the side. Shane Wright & Scott Drinkwater again standout as solid value plays.

Coen Hess is nicely priced on both sites - but has become somewhat of a trap play since moving to the centres. Now watch him score 2 tries now that I've said that ;)

Good luck with your lineups and remember to always check final team lists posted 60 mins before kickoff - or follow me @k1w1nOz

If you’re new to NRL DFS have a quick read of my NRL DFS Strategy Basics article, and also check out my NRL DFS Strategy: Draftstars vs Moneyball post if you play on both sites.

The Lineup Cruncher is FREE to use with projection data based on last 5 games played  - or become a Premium member for full access to all of Fantasy Insider's custom projections.